It was interesting to read the news on spending and consumption in the wake of the recent Bureau of Economic Analysis report on personal consumption and saving trends. The report indicated that personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income increased 1.4% in October from 1.0% in September. Personal consumption dropped 1%.
What was interesting in these reports was that the decrease in spending and increase in savings was generally viewed as largely negative. In an economy that is dependent on consumer spending for 70% of economic growth, the decrease in spending may be frightening and an indicator of future economic weakness and this point was largely played up by the press. However, what was generally ignored was the fact that the increase in savings is a logical response to economic uncertainty and increases long-term growth prospects.
In the 1980s, the US savings rate was 9-10%, steadily declining to roughly 0% in the mid-2000s. At the time, a lot of economists (including the US Federal Reserve) who explained the decline in consumer saving as a logical response to increasing home and stock values (the wealth effect). With the recent declines in both equity and real estate markets, we’re seeing an unwinding or negative wealth effect, with a predictable retrenching and increase in savings.
Rather than lament the increase in savings, we should be celebrating. We’re making rational decisions based on the value of our assets. This retrenching will increase savings and create funds to fuel long-term growth. As we increase our savings rate, we will be able to better fund future growth and economic obligations such as retirement.
How has the downturn affected your savings rate and how do you feel about the decrease in US consumption?
Scott Crawford is CEO of DebtGoal.com, a do-it-yourself system for lowering your interest costs and getting out of debt. DebtGoal.com incorporates all of the techniques discussed in this post and can help users understand and get visibility to and manage their debt finances.